# winner's curse

> Living preprint · as of 2026-10-25 · map node G-winners-curse (concept) · interim record, not a final result.

**winner's curse**

Plain: If you pick the best of many setups on the same questions, it will look a bit better than it really is.

Technical: The recommended deep configuration was the best of ≥ 8 deep configurations on V-para; expect a ≈ 0.01–0.02 discount on new data.

Read chapter 10, Measuring the measurer: https://r4topunk.github.io/boar-research/research/measurer.md

## Facts cited {#facts}

Resolve every [F-…] marker in https://r4topunk.github.io/boar-research/data/facts.json. Each line gives the claim, the number with its metric family, set and status, judge, n, seeds, CI, date and caveat.

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- [F-009] Recommended deep configuration (35B mixture-of-experts + 512-token thinking budget) on the bounty-style set. raw 0.553 (0.524–0.581; with seed noise 0.513–0.592); floor-adjusted 0.436 (0.401–0.472; with seed noise 0.387–0.486); win 0/51; desktop p50 ≈ 79 s (judge.v1 ratio) · set V-para (dev-style, development data) · judge Claude Opus (judge.v1, both orders) · n 51 · seeds 2 · CI 95 % item bootstrap; common-mode CI adds seed noise · date 2026-10-09 · caveat: Chosen as the best of ≥ 8 deep configurations on this same set: expect a winner's-curse discount of about 0.01–0.02. QUEUE prints raw 0.552; the two-seed aggregate is 0.553. Desktop only.

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Cite as: r4to, independent researcher. RatLab — A Boar Research (2026), research record 1.0, as of 2026-10-25. Text and data CC BY 4.0. Fact ids or a link must travel with a quote. How to cite: https://r4topunk.github.io/boar-research/cite/ · https://r4topunk.github.io/boar-research/CITATION.cff.

AI-reviewed, not clinically reviewed. Nothing here is medical advice.